Is this finally the year of mobile? Google and Apple think so

Do you think 2010 is finally the year of mobile?

There has been much hype and speculation over the potential for mobile advertising to break out in recent years.  Analysts have been predicting "the year of mobile" since at least 2007, yet despite consistent growth in mobile messaging, smart phone device sales and mobile app downloads we have not seen mobile advertising take off.  However, there is reason to believe that 2010 might be different.  Here are a couple of reasons why:

1. The big guys are taking their positions:  It appears as though the two big players in mobile are going to be Google and Apple.  Both companies have made strategic acquisitions in Q4 2009 to position arm themselves for a mobile advertising battle in 2010.  Google acquired mobile advertising firm Ad Mob for $750 million and Apple replied by acquiring Quattro Wireless $275 million.  It is also interesting to note that Apple was also rumored to have made a bid for Ad Mob and that Google reportedly paid approximately 17 times Ad Mob's revenues to complete the transaction. Google is also in the process of testing its own smart phone that they will sell directly to consumers to compete with Apple's iphone in 2010.  Yahoo! and Microsoft have also bolstered their mobile offerings in anticipation of a big 2010.

2. Social Networks driving mobile web into mainstream: comScore reports that social networks have seen a 196.7% year-over-year growth in mobile internet usage.  Mobile users spend approximately 24 minutes on Facebook and average 3.3 visits per day, which is now equal if not better than PC users who spend 27.5 mnutes per day and average 2.3 visits.  Mobile application downloads surpassed 3 billion in 2009 and it is expected to continue to grow rapidly in 2010 as smart phone penetration increases.

3. Text Messaging (SMS) surpasses 50% of users: In 2009 comScore reports that over 131.9 million users sent a text message to another phone, which represents 57.3% of total mobile phone users (a year-over-year growth of over 25%).  This is a major inflection point, as it surpasses 50% of users for the first time.  Text messaging services also saw a big jump in 2009 with over 32 million people receiving news or info via SMS, which represents 14.1% of users (a remarkable 114.9% year-over-year increase).

The exciting part is that smart phone, such as the iphone, blackberry and android phones still only account for 12% of the market.  As we see that number increase over the coming years, we will see rapid growth in mobile advertising, mobile application downloads and mobile web usage.

A few things to look out for in 2010:

Local: Look for more apps and mobile web experiences that focus on local markets and include local advertising.

Location-based: Location-based services and apps really took off in 2009.  look for that trend to continue in 2010 as apps incorporate more GPS-driven features.

Integrated: Look out for more integrated experiences, with mobile being used as a bridge media between offline and PC online experiences.  As an example: mobile coupons, SMS alerts and location-based mobile driving consumers in-store or to events.

Are you investing in mobile advertising or marketing in 2010?  Do you think 2010 will be the year of mobile?

Comments

[Doug Johnson]

I think it will be "the year of mobile" when a restaurant owner can see he doesn't have very many reservations at 4:30, send out a digital coupon to every mobile phone within a 10 block radius and have a full house at 5:30. I think we're still a long ways away.

I do think, however, that we will see mobile advertising be a lot more targeted and relevant this year. I definitely hope this will be the last year I open a free iPhone app and am told about all the beautiful young ladies who want to chat with me.

[Steve Irvine]

Hey Doug,

Thanks for the comment. I'm not sure if your iPhone will help you attract beautiful young ladies in the neighborhood, but I think the location-based application for marketers has arrived in 2010.

Check out my most recent blog series on location-based social for more info http://bit.ly/9lKMnN